Managing the risk:
Corporate, regions, exploration, operations
and projects
- Identify risk, assess, evaluate, mitigate, monitor and report
- Ensure compliance with policy and standards
- Provide assertion on risk exposure
- Risk reviews conducted through functional owners
Support the Board:
Audit and Risk Committee,
CEO and CFO
- Executive team oversight
- Regional oversight
- Group risk management
- Group compliance management
- Group sustainability management
- Group tax management
- Legal
- Business improvement frameworks
- Lateral oversight through functional owners
- Group planning, technical reviews and oversight
- Group growth, exploration review and oversight
Independent evaluation:
Controls, compliance, and governance
- Internal audit
- External audit
- Combined assurance reviews
- ISO standards
- Third party assurance
Governance and
steering committees
Risk appetite and risk tolerance
In conducting our business, a certain amount of risk is inevitable. AngloGold Ashanti defines risk appetite as the level and type of risk that the Group is willing to accept to achieve its business goals, while risk tolerance refers to the level of risk carried at a particular time. Both risk appetite and risk tolerance are critical elements of the Group’s risk management process and how risk management integrates with business planning and operational management. The board determines the appropriate levels of group risk tolerance and sets limits for risk appetite annually.
See Our Strategy, Delivering on our strategy and Our external operating context
Opportunities
While AngloGold Ashanti recognises that risk is present in all business and operational activities, we also understand that threats in certain scenarios can present opportunities.
Significant opportunities are:
Increasing Ore Reserve
Several opportunities exist in the ongoing development of the Ore Reserve – either by greenfield discoveries or conversion from our Mineral Resource – which is key to the long-term sustainability of the business. Through a targeted investment programme started in 2020, our exploration teams added 2.7Moz of Ore Reserve, net of those depleted by production, and anticipate another net increase in 2021 as this programme continues. For more details see Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve – summary in this report.
New project development
Investment decisions on the two Colombian projects are expected in the coming year. These projects are the wholly owned Quebradona copper-gold project and the Gramalote joint venture (50:50) with operator B2Gold. Once in production, these projects, which are low-cost and have long operating lives, will substantially reduce AngloGold Ashanti’s cost profile with increased margins and cash generation, while also enhancing our life-of-mine profile with medium- to long-term production and total Ore Reserve, maintaining long-term optionality.
Commodity diversification
As a copper-gold project, Quebradona will diversify the range of commodities produced. Copper is essential to renewable energy and electric vehicle technologies, among others. As the world moves towards decarbonisation and reduced emissions in the face of the climate crisis, global demand for copper is expected to increase.
Managing risk during the COVID-19 pandemic
As the COVID-19 pandemic swept around the world, AngloGold Ashanti demonstrated real-time risk management and the ability to respond quickly to the resulting challenges, adapting and innovating processes in reaction to the changing COVID-19 environment across its operating regions. Decision-making at all levels was streamlined through our crisis management processes, which had as a centrepiece a multi-disciplinary daily crisis meeting across all operations. This meeting allowed for rapid sharing of information, which was vital as the spread of the virus accelerated, and also equally efficient sharing of emerging best practice and solutions to challenges across our sites. All of these mitigation measures from the risks that had been highlighted, were carefully logged and followed through to resolution.
Government-imposed lockdowns forced certain mines to suspend operations at different stages, and for different periods of time during the year. We worked to ensure business continuity while prioritising the health and safety of our employees and host communities. We quickly put in place protocols and standard operating procedures for all sites to help prevent the transmission of the virus. Our teams worked closely with community leadership around our mines and governments in our operating jurisdictions, to provide support for efforts to ‘flatten the curve’ and cushion the economic impact of the pandemic.
Guidance was suspended in March and reinstated in September, once there was a greater degree of certainty in our ability to manage our operations during conditions created by the pandemic.
As the virus spread around the globe, disrupting supply chains, a concerted effort was made to increase inventories of critical spares and consumable inputs at our operations. In addition, as the threat of mine closures became a reality in Brazil, South Africa and Argentina, we worked to ensure adequate liquidity in the event of protracted and more widespread production stoppages across our portfolio. This was especially important given that our $700m, 10-year bond came up for maturity in April 2020, which we had elected to pay from existing credit facilities and cash on hand.
We drew down fully on our $1.4bn revolving credit facility and put in place a short-term, $1bn emergency credit facility, to ensure adequate liquidity as the extent and impact of the pandemic became clearer. As the gold price rose through the course of 2020 and free cash flow improved as a result, cash balances were bolstered and later supplemented by the issue of a new, $700m 10-year bond at a lower coupon than the one settled in April, and the $200m initial proceeds from the sale of our South Africa assets. In addition we received $39m of the initial proceeds from the sale of Sadiola, the dividend paid by Sadiola, and the proceeds of the sale of our interest in Morila.
COVID-19 remains a risk to the business as new variants emerge and spread across the world, but we have a significantly more robust balance sheet than a year ago, increased inventories on our sites, and a much improved understanding of the practicalities of operating safely and maintaining business continuity during periods of increased transmission of the virus. We remain alert to unanticipated risks emerging as the virus evolves, seeking to retain the flexibility and cohesion that stood us in good stead during 2020. We will work closely with our government stakeholders to support their vaccination efforts as vaccines become available, prioritising our employees and contractors, their dependants, and the populations in our host communities.
Our top 10 residual group risks
Our risks are assessed over the short, medium and long term. The heat map below shows the residual rating for each of our top 10 material risks over a three-year view (medium term). Residual risk is the Company’s exposure to a particular risk once mitigation measures have been applied to the inherent risk.
1. Adverse regulatory changes to mining rights and fiscal requirements
Description
Our experience is that political, tax and economic laws and policies in countries in which we operate can change rapidly. We operate in countries that can from time to time experience a degree of social and political instability as well as economic uncertainty.
See Navigating regulatory and political risks in the <SR>.
Potential contributing factors
- Political instability and elections in 2020 in certain operational jurisdictions could elevate political risk impacting the company
- Resource nationalism
- Regulatory uncertainty
Impact of COVID-19
- Government imposed lockdowns
- More challenging socio-economic conditions
- Increased resource nationalism
Potential consequences
- Increased tax and royalty obligations
- Increased operating costs reduce cash flow and can adversely impact business plans
- Compromised employee safety and security
- Adverse impact on market capitalisation
- Increased scrutiny from governments, non-governmental organisations and communities
Response and mitigation
- Regular, inclusive engagement and broader collaboration with government, communities and NGOs
- Continuous monitoring of legislative/political landscape
- Use of joint venture alliances in line with host country’s regulatory requirements
- Assuring compliance with the relevant country legislation
- Government relations framework
Strategic focus areas impacted
Capitals affected and at risk
Committee responsibility
- Social, Ethics and Sustainability Committee
- Audit and Risk Committee
Risk outlook
The company anticipates increased uncertainty and will maintain flexibility in maintaining long-term optionality
2. Inability to convert Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve
Description
It is essential to replace Ore Reserve depleted by mining and production in order to maintain or increase production in the long term. If not, operational performance and financial condition and prospects will be adversely affected.
See Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve – summary in this report.
Potential contributing factors
- Adverse changes to geological models
- Inability to react to changing economic factors
- Regulatory uncertainty
- Unfavourable feasibility studies
- Project studies late or over budget
- Inability to fund projects
- Inclusion of Inferred Mineral Resource into business plans
Impact of COVID-19
- Delays in regulatory permitting
- Shut downs of operations
- Increases in costs
Potential consequences
- Ore Reserve write-down
- Reduced mining flexibility and adverse impact as well as uncertainty on business planning and ability to forecast
- Impairments, lower future earnings, decline in market capitalisation
- Lower production
- Premature mine closure or mothballing of operations
Response and mitigation
Short term
- Improved Ore Reserve development to create flexibility for mines to cope with unexpected events
- Increased Ore Reserve conversion
- Robust business planning, portfolio optimisation and feasibility studies to withstand potential risks
Long term
- Focused greenfield exploration targeting new discoveries
- Continued focus on brownfields exploration
- Ranking of opportunities based on returns and affordability
Strategic focus areas impacted
Capitals affected and at risk
Committee responsibility
Risk outlook
There is an expectation of some uncertainty with a willingness to take justifiable risks to improve portfolio quality.
3. Adverse future implications on the industry and our governance of event risks
Description
Potentially catastrophic risks include the COVID-19 pandemic and tailings dam failure. These risks could lead to significant financial consequences and fundamental changes to the way we operate.
See COVID-19 responses and Tailings management in the <SR>.
Potential contributing factors
- Cost of compliance with tailings management regulations following the 2019 Brumadinho tailings dam failure in Brazil
- COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent events
Impact of COVID-19
Global economic uncertainty across all sectors
Fluid regulatory environment
Changes to inspection procedures due to social distancing and travel restriction
Potential consequences
COVID-19
- Lockdowns that suspend operations
- Threats to employee wellbeing
- Supply chain disruptions
- Threat to liquidity as the pandemic is prolonged
- Recovery and consequent rise in global interest rates could have an adverse effect on gold prices
Tailings storage facilities (TSFs)
- Adverse socio-economic stakeholder impact and reputational damage
- Increased regulatory scrutiny and control of TSFs, including permits
- Costs associated with inspecting, strengthening, maintaining and constructing TSFs and their conversion to dry-stacking operations
- Increased pressure from communities and elevated risk in securing social licence to operate
Response and mitigation
- Agile COVID-19 response plans
- Ensuring adequate liquidity in anticipation of prolonged impact of COVID-19
- Comprehensive tailings management framework, standards and guidelines to deal with risks
- Conversion to dry stacking operations
Strategic focus areas impacted
Capitals affected and at risk
Committee responsibility
- Social, Ethics and Sustainability Committee
Risk outlook
There is an expectation of uncertainty with a willingness to take strongly justifiable risks whilst being cautious and prioritising safe delivery
4. Failure to successfully deliver and ramp up growth projects
Potential contributing factors
- Inability to bring the Ore Reserve and Mineral Resource to account
- Project cost overruns and delays
- Skills deficit, permits, funding, natural events, etc.
- Poor-quality execution
- Commissioning and ramp-up problems
Impact of COVID-19
- Delays in regulatory permitting processes
- Supply chain disruptions
Potential consequences and impact on value creation
- Project delays can adversely impact costs, project returns and earnings
- Failure to achieve business plans and deliver on strategy
- Decline in investor confidence and company valuation
Response and mitigation
- A robust approach to regular stage-gate project reviews, on assessing projects and allocating capital in accordance with our capital allocation framework
- Ensuring appropriate project skills, systems, structures and governance in place
- Project steering committee participation
Strategic focus areas impacted
Capitals affected and at risk
Committee responsibility
Risk outlook
There is an expectation of some uncertainty with a willingness to take on measured/calculated risks to improve portfolio quality and maintain long-term optionality
5. Failure to meet our operational and safety targets
Description
Unplanned stoppages and unforeseen operational interruptions that can impact production and operational accidents or injury could adversely impact business performance.
See Employee safety in the <SR>.
Potential contributing factors
- Unplanned operational issues affecting delivery on targets
- Operations exposed to natural catastrophes or extreme weather
- Non-compliance with critical controls resulting in safety incidents or potential fatalities.
Impact of COVID-19
- Stoppages and lockdowns
- Physical and mental health impacts on employees due to the spread of the COVID-19 virus
- Employee illness or death
Potential consequences and impact on value creation
- Reduced cash flow, lower liquidity
- Reduced earnings, uncertain delivery on targets and penalty on valuation
- Decline in investor confidence
- Credit rating downgrade
- Decreased ability to invest in projects
- Injuries, deaths and related stoppages impacting production
- COVID-19 threat to workforce health and wellbeing
Response and mitigation
- Delivery of business plans by focusing on Mineral Resource modelling, integrated business planning and execution
- Improved reserve life and planning certainty
- Operational excellence programmes to improve productivity and efficiency
- Focus on safe production across all operations to achieve zero harm
- Agile COVID-19 response plans
Strategic focus areas impacted
Capitals affected and at risk
Committee responsibility
- Investment Committee
- Audit and Risk Committee
- Social, Ethics and Sustainability Committee
Risk outlook
Limited uncertainty is anticipated. Focus on people, sustainability, and safety as well as better understanding of orebodies and ensuring asset integrity to reduce uncertainty and unforeseen operational interruptions. Conservative and cautious with a preference for safe delivery
6. Failure to attract and retain critical skills and talent
Description
Inability to retain and attract sufficiently skilled and experienced employees may harm our business and growth prospects.
Having the right people with the required skills is vital to the efficient conduct of our business and strategic delivery.
See People are our business in this report and Integrated talent management in the <SR>.
Potential contributing factors
- Insufficient talent bench strength and succession planning pool
- Better job opportunities externally
- Failure to deliver skills from internal pipeline
- Reduced attractiveness of mining industry, overall state of commodity markets, poaching, etc
- Ability to deploy staff to gain relevant work experience
- Difficulty obtaining permits for expatriates
- Global mobility and succession planning challenges.
- Loss of key personnel
Impact of COVID-19
- Travel restrictions
- Increased competition for skills
Potential consequences and impact on value creation
- Failure to deliver on strategic objectives
- Potential impact on productivity and safety
- Increased costs
- Impact on market confidence
- Higher cost of retention
- Failure to meet localisation targets
Response and mitigation
- Implement key human resource initiatives to ensure productive and engaged workforce
- Identify potential future critical skills
- Integrated talent management and succession planning, with an increased coverage ratio for critical skills
- Increase training capacity for scarce artisan’s skills
- Short-and long-term incentive schemes
- Employee engagement surveys
- Remote working functionality
Strategic focus areas impacted
Capitals affected and at risk
Committee responsibility
- Social, Ethics and Sustainability Committee
- Remuneration Committee
Risk outlook
Some uncertainty is anticipated. Focus on people and sustainability
7. Loss of or threats to social licence to operate
Description
Failure to operate in a sustainable and responsible manner and provide benefits to communities could threaten our “social licence to operate” and adversely impact our financial condition
See Building resilient, self-sustaining communities in the <SR>.
Potential contributing factors
- Non-compliance with community and security policies and leading standards
- Ineffective stakeholder engagement
- Land relinquishment pressure
- Increase in illegal and artisanal small-scale mining
- Community perception of environmental and other risks
Impact of COVID-19
- Fewer government resources
- Expectation of assistance
- Increased need for support of local host communities
Potential consequences and impact on value creation
- Disruption of operations
- Reputational damage
- Impact on investor confidence, valuation and credit ratings
- Adverse regulatory response
- Compromised safety and security
Response and mitigation
- Targeted stakeholder mapping and engagement
- Monitor legislative/political landscape in anticipation of negative impact on business
- Meet local content requirements
- Share economic benefits
- Sustainability performance review with general managers
- Assessment of social licence to operate at operations
Strategic focus areas impacted
Capitals affected and at risk
Committee responsibility
- Social, Ethics and Sustainability Committee
Risk outlook
Uncertainty is anticipated requiring flexibility and a willingness to take measured/calculated risks together with focusing on people and sustainability by being cautious and focused on safe delivery.
8. Failure to move down the industry cost curve – all-in sustaining cost competitiveness
Description
Margins and free cash flow are at risk when the gold price remains static or declines, or when costs increase.
See CFO's report in the report.
Potential contributing factors
- Low levels of cash flow
- Operational under- performance
- Company/country credit ratings downgrade
Impact of COVID-19
- COVID-19 response measures increased costs and reduced production
Potential consequences and impact on value creation
- Reduced profit margins or failure to achieve efficiencies
- Failure to achieve business plans and deliver strategy given limited financial resources
- Threat to investment and credit ratings
Response and mitigation
- Drive operational excellence programmes
- Introduce lower cost ounces
- Capital optimisation to generate maximum returns
- Completed asset sales to focus on higher-return options
Strategic focus areas impacted
Capitals affected and at risk
Committee responsibility
- Audit and Risk Committee
- Investment Committee
Risk outlook
Ensuring financial flexibility including caution with a preference for safe delivery
9. Adverse gold and commodity price, and currency movements
Description
Lower spot prices and strengthening of currencies in host countries will adversely impact our ability to generate free cash flow.
See CFO's report in the report.
Potential contributing factors
- Reduced demand for jewellery and increased supply of gold
- US dollar strength relative to other currencies in host countries
- Increased input prices – fuel, steel and reagents
- Increased global interest rates providing more attractive alternatives for gold investors
Impact of COVID-19
- Period of gold price increases
- Global stimulus packages and currency movements
Potential consequences and impact on value creation
- Inadequate free cash flow/liquidity
- Inability to deliver growth and execute strategy
- Recapitalisation at distressed equity prices and in poor market conditions
- Adverse investment and credit ratings
- Sustained lower gold price may adversely affect new capital projects, continuity of existing operations and other long-term strategic decisions
- Lower market capitalisation
Response and mitigation
- Enhance cost competitiveness by improving quality of the portfolio
- Focus on cost, efficiencies, and capital discipline
- Maintain long-term optionality by ensuring competitive project pipeline
- Improve debt profile and interest cost
- Conservative gold price and currency planning assumptions
- Sensitivity analysis on gold price, production, exchange rate and group risk adjustments
Strategic focus areas impacted
Capitals affected and at risk
Committee responsibility
- Audit and Risk Committee
- Investment Committee
Risk outlook
Some uncertainty is anticipated requiring flexibility and a willingness to take measured and calculated risks and a willingness for caution with a preference for safe delivery
10. Inability to meet investor expectations on responsible mining and increased disclosure (ESG performance)
Description
Lack of disclosure and irresponsible mining could lead to investors divesting, increased reputational risk, and an adverse impact on the share price and our social licence to operate.
See ESG performance in the report.
Potential contributing factors
- Non-alignment with ESG and standards, or disclosure requirements
- Ineffective structures and processes to ensure accountability, transparency or responsiveness, leading to an escalation of risk exposure and negative impact on our social licence to operate
- Impact of irresponsible mining on host communities
- Carbon emissions target reduction and disclosure
Impact of COVID-19
- Increased social imperatives to assist local host communities, NGOs and governments.
Potential consequences and impact on value creation
- Reputational damage
- Impact on investor confidence, market capitalisation and credit ratings
- Adverse regulatory response
- Compromised employee safety and security
Response and mitigation
- Regular engagement and collaboration with stakeholders
- Transparent reporting and public disclosure
- Ensuring good corporate citizenship and governance
- Managing and limiting environmental impacts and progressing in meeting our targets
- Integrating climate considerations into the business and undertaking physical climate risk assessments for all operations
- Inclusion of stakeholders in COVID-19 response plans
Strategic focus areas impacted
Capitals affected and at risk
Committee responsibility
- Audit and Risk Committee
- Investment Committee
- Social, Ethics and Sustainability Committee
Risk outlook
Uncertainty is anticipated requiring a balance of flexibility, willingness to take measured/calculated risks and caution with a preference for safe delivery.
Emerging risks
The most prominent emerging risks which are being closely monitored are:
Cyber security
Cyber-related threats continue to grow and include malicious software attempts to gain unauthorised access to data and other electronic security, and protected information breaches. The organisation acknowledges there is a global risk to our systems and so maintaining cybersecurity across all operations is an ongoing focus. The cybersecurity team operates a global 24/7 service that monitors all information and technology assets in real-time, scanning for any imminent threats. For assurance, all policies and procedures are regularly reviewed and audited. Technological innovation and protecting our technology from attack, are key to sustaining our operating environments. This area receives ongoing focus and oversight by the board, Audit and Risk Committee and management.
Climate crisis
Our operations are exposed to several physical risks resulting from climate change. Climate change is a priority at board level with the focus on setting further decarbonisation targets, charting a path to net zero and implementing the Task Force on Climate-related Disclosures (TCFD) recommendations. We established a climate change working group and during 2020 began to consider high level physical climate change risk assessments with conservative climate change scenarios considered for all operations. See Climate change and energy use in the <SR>.
Risks by region
Risk
Key areas of focus and opportunities
Africa
Adverse regulatory changes to mining rights and fiscal changes
Tanzania:
Geita
In July 2017, the Government of Tanzania enacted a new legal framework for the country’s extractive industries.
We are operating in compliance with the legislation and maintaining constructive engagements with authorities.
DRC:
Kibali
- Our Joint venture partner Barrick continues to engage with the DRC government on concerns related to the 2018 mining code
- At June 2018, AngloGold Ashanti and many other holders of mining rights reserved their rights under the 2002 Mining Code
- A VAT refund agreement was signed with the DRC Tax Administration in 2018 permitting the joint venture to offset the amount of VAT credits eligible for repayment against other payments to government
- Discussions are continuing with the authorities to progress the Article 220 Decree, with the aim of limiting the fiscal impact of the new mining code and improving the cash repatriation process
Adverse future implications on the industry and our governance of event risks
COVID-19:
- There is still a significant degree of uncertainty in relation to potential impacts of COVID-19, requiring flexibility in response planning to assist the business to recover and thrive
Failure to successfully deliver and ramp up growth projects
Ghana:
Obuasi
- The Obuasi Redevelopment Project continued its ramp-up, delivering a 127,000oz in production despite delays in receiving equipment and in the arrival of skilled personnel, critical to the project as a result of COVID-19 related lockdowns in various jurisdictions during the year. Phase 2 is on tight schedule and expected to be completed in the first half of 2021
- Management continues to work closely with government and community stakeholders to ensure the mine is developed sustainably and creates value for all stakeholders
Failure to meet our operational and safety targets
Guinea:
Siguiri
- Operational and technical challenges related to the commissioning of the combination plant continue to impact performance
- Plans to mitigate these challenges have been implemented and there has been an upswing in production, with operations stabilising
- The company is carrying out preparatory work, including the construction of a haul road for the higher-grade Block 2 deposit at Siguiri
Failure to attract and retain critical skills and talent
- Continue the Chairman’s Young Leaders Programme that targets internal talent, creating a talent pipeline for future leadership positions
- We are assessing our structural models to optimise effectiveness
- Localisation of the hiring of employees and companies, in our host countries is a priority
Loss of and/or threats to social licence to operate
Guinea:
Siguiri
- Maintaining comprehensive engagement with key stakeholders to minimise operational disruptions and secure our licence to operate
Ghana:
Obuasi
- Localisation is a focus in the community, and we work with stakeholders on the implementation of the Obuasi Social Management Plan, creating opportunities for alternative livelihoods and skills development
Americas
Adverse future implications on the industry and our governance of event risks
Brazil:
COVID-19
- There is still a significant degree of uncertainty in relation to the impacts of COVID-19, requiring flexibility in response planning to assist the business to recover and thrive
Tailings storage facilities (TSFs)
- AngloGold Ashanti Brazil’s existing tailings facilities introduced dewatering bays and filtration plants to reduce the volume of material deposited
- TSFs at our Brazil operations are being converted to dry stacking and will be decommissioned, as required by legislation or their closure plans
Failure to successfully deliver and ramp up growth projects
Colombia:
Quebradona Project
- The feasibility study is expected to be completed in the first half of 2021 after which it will be presented to the board for approval
- Forming a broad strategic alliance with all relevant stakeholders to establish regional support for the project. Local stakeholder support continues to grow
Gramalote Project
- Having transferred operatorship of our Gramalote project to B2Gold we are able to focus our technical skills towards the development of this project
- Working closely with our partner B2Gold to advance drilling and complete the feasibility study during 2021
- A request for approval is expected in 2021, followed by construction in 2022
Failure to meet our operational and safety targets
Brazil:
Cuiabá
- The operation has been experiencing poor ground conditions. The installation of additional ground support has been incorporated into the mining cycle. The infill drilling completed over the past year resulted in a revised geological interpretation of the main orebody
- The focus is to increase the development and drilling to expand our knowledge of the orebody and increase confidence in the mine plan
Failure to attract and retain critical skills and talent
- Continue the Chairman’s Young Leaders Programme that targets internal talent, creating a talent pipeline for future leadership positions
- Structural models to optimise effectiveness are being assessed
- Localisation of the hiring of employees and companies in our host countries, is a priority
Australia
Failure to successfully deliver and ramp up growth projects
Tropicana:
- The Boston Shaker underground mine, which moved into commercial production during the third quarter of 2020, is on schedule and under the budget in the approved feasibility project
Failure to attract and retain critical skills and talent
- Continue the Chairman’s Young Leaders Programme that targets development of internal talent, creating a talent pipeline for future leadership positions
- Initiatives include an assessment of structural models conducted at regional levels that envisage optimisation of structures and shift accountabilities